Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
